Three possible causes of a slowdown in US growth in 2022 – Natixis

US growth has already slowed down in 2021. But there is reason to fear a sharp slowdown in the US economy in 2022, due to the end of the stimulus plan and the reduction in the size of the investment plan; monetary policy tightening and negative wealth effect; low participation rate. This reinforces the conviction of economists at Natixis that eurozone growth will outpace US growth in 2022.

There are grounds to fear markedly lower growth in 2022 than in 2021 in the US

“The stimulus package only covers 2021, and we see that the investment plan (initially $2,300 billion) will ultimately have to be much smaller to be accepted. The fiscal deficit is therefore likely to be significantly smaller in 2022 than in 2021, which of course would slow down growth.” 

“The Federal Reserve will probably reduce its debt purchases in 2022 and stabilise the size of its balance sheet. This is unlikely to have much effect on the US long-term interest rate (which depends on the stock of bonds held by the Federal Reserve, not on the flow of purchases), but could push down asset prices, generating a negative wealth effect.”

“If it is confirmed that a significant number of Americans will not return to the labour market, the participation rate will fall, as after the subprime crisis, which will obviously slow down growth.”