US Initial Jobless Claims Preview: Economic improvement goes to slow motion

First-time unemployment claims are forecast to drop to 846,000 from 881,000 while continuing claims are set to continue down to 12.925 million from 13.254 million. The US dollar revival is supported by improving US economic statistics, as FXStreet’s analyst Joseph Trevisani notes.

Key quotes

“Requests for benefits are expected to be 846,000 in the September 9 week after 881,000 in the previous report. It would be the second week in a row below 1 million but only the third since the pandemic closures collapsed employment in March.”

“Continuing claims are forecast to drop to 12.925 million in the August 28 week, from 13.254 prior. If accurate recipients will have fallen 52% from their May 8 high of 24.912 million.”  

“The six-week decline in the US dollar which stalled and partially reversed last week was based on an expected halt to the economic recovery prompted by the jump in initial claims in the middle of August. That increase has reverted to decline and the US economy has not faltered. Currency markets are waiting for further proof that their supposition was in error. Claims seem ready to oblige.”