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20 Jul 2020

USD/JPY: Challenges bears above 107.00, shrugs off BOJ Minutes, Japan’s trade data

  • USD/JPY struggles to extend recovery moves from 107.02.
  • BOJ Minutes suggest policymakers praised aggressive fiscal and monetary policies.
  • Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance Total slipped below ¥-35.8 B expected to ¥-268.8 B.
  • Risk-tone remains mildly positive amid coronavirus woes, hopes of further stimulus packages.

USD/JPY rises to 107.08 as markets in Tokyo open for trading on Monday. The pair’s recent uptick from 107.02 could be traced to mixed trade numbers from Japan and BOJ minutes. Also confusing the pair traders is the market’s risk-tone sentiment that also looks for a firm direction.

Japanese trade data dwindles, BOJ minutes strike upbeat tone…

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymakers cited coronavirus (COVID-19) as the key risk while keeping a bit positive economic outlook. As per the latest BOJ meeting minutes, “members agreed tension in global financial markets had abated due to aggressive fiscal and monetary policies. Members shared view markets continued to be nervous due to high uncertainty regarding domestic and overseas economies.”

Elsewhere, Japan’s June month trade numbers fail to portray any strong direction. The headline Trade Balance Total recovered from ¥-833.4 B previous readings to ¥-268.8 B but stayed below ¥-35.8 B forecast. Further details suggest Exports slipped below -24.9% expected to -26.2% while Imports bounced off -16.8% market consensus to -14.4% in June.

Following the data/events, the quote flashed rose to 107.10 before stepping back to 107.08 as we write.

Read: Bank of Japan Minutes June meeting: Economy showing signs of bottoming out

Talking about the risk catalysts, the Financial Times (FT) cited fears of the double-dip recession based on the latest surge in the pandemic data from the US. The latest numbers from the US suggest over 67,000 new cases while Tokyo marked near 188 cases on Sunday.

Other than the virus woes, uncertainty surrounding the further stimulus from the US and the European Union (EU) also hurts the market sentiment. Fresh updates suggest that the EU summit inches close to 750 billion Euro plan while the US Senate leader Mitch McConnell may disappoint forecasters of $3 trillion aid package from America.

It’s worth mentioning that the US-China tussle also weighs on the market’s risk-tone. The dragon nation has recently been fighting against the major Western countries to safeguard the Hong Kong security law. The UK recently signaled that it will suspend extradition treaty with Hong Kong, as per Bloomberg.

Amid all these plays, the US 10-year Treasury yields seesaw near 0.62% whereas S&P 500 Futures print 0.17% gains to 3,220 as we write. Further, Japan’s Nikkei begins the trading day on the positive side around 22,725.

Moving on, a lack of major data/events will keep virus updates, news concerning further stimulus on the driver’s seat.

Technical analysis

Despite keeping its upside break of a six-week-old falling trend line, currently around 106.87, bulls fail to cross 50-day SMA level near 107.50. As a result, sellers remain hopeful to revisit the late-June bottom surrounding 106.10.

 

Jul 20, 2020

Bank of Japan Minutes June meeting: Economy showing signs of bottoming out

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