NZD/USD: Weaker dollar overall to be supportive, but pair not likely to reach 2020 highs – CIBC

Analysts at CIBC, expect the NZD to be a slight underperformer against the AUD. They forecast the NZD/USD at 0.61for the third and fourth quarter. 

Key Quotes: 

“Like the AUD, some of the strong recovery in the Kiwi has since turned to consolidation as the macro risk rebound faced some questions. For the NZD specifically, while New Zealand was much heralded for its efforts in combatting the virus within the country, the recent week or so has seen an emergence of a second-round of infections – albeit in limited numbers and traced to returning overseas arrivals. Still, any prospect of second round infections stalling an incipient economic recovery, or forcing a return to more restrictive rules, would be detrimental.”

“NZD/USD is now trading around levels of Sept-Dec of last year, and though the outlook for the economy is being backstopped by strong monetary and fiscal support, which should be supportive for assets and the NZD. Some risk premium from those levels given current uncertainty is appropriate. A weaker USD overall will be supportive for NZD/USD, though we do not see the market eclipsing highs around the New Year of 0.6750 in an easy manner. Similar to Australia, a drying up of tourism and threats to inward education and the unknown of when those will return to previous levels suggest caution.”