NFP: A tepid reaction given a well anticipated bad report – TDS

Payrolls were -20.5mn in April, not quite as weak as forecast, but still dismal. FX market had a tepid reaction given a well anticipated bad report, per TD Securities.

Key quotes

“Payrolls were -20.5mn in April, not quite as weak as the -22mn consensus, but still dismal; the TD Securities forecast was -25mn. The unemployment rate rose to 14.7% from 4.4%, below the 16.0% consensus (TD: 15.0%).” 

“Our bias coming into this print was that FX would observe rather than react. We think this remains the case as much of the FX spectrum has barely budged.” 

“We remain focused on EUR/USD which looks vulnerable to break below the 1.0770/00 pivot; while we do not expect that to occur today, we remain downside focused in the pair.”