UK: Difficult to predict the outcome from polls – Danske Bank

Danske Bank analysts suggest that the forthcoming UK elections are an EU referendum in disguise. 

Key Quotes

“PM Johnson will campaign on his 'Get Brexit Done' platform arguing the public should give him the mandate to implement his Brexit deal. LibDems, SNP, Plaid Cymru and Greens are likely to campaign for a second EU referendum (with 'remain' as an option on the ballot). It is more difficult to say what platform Labour is campaigning, as Labour in reality has not clarified its position on Brexit. However, we would expect Labour to back a second EU referendum eventually.”

“This means we may soon get to the Brexit end game, unless we get a (very?) hung parliament without a clear/stable majority, like we did in 2017. If this is the case, the period of high uncertainty and confusion will continue and the UK may need another extension beyond 31 January.”

“Overall, the tail risk of a no deal Brexit has declined substantially and investors have priced out a lot of negativity in GBP. The election does not change this.”

“Unfortunately, it is difficult to translate polls into mandates due to the 'winner takes all' election system. Just to illustrate, the Conservatives won 13 seats in Scotland in the 2017 election but it seems difficult for Johnson to win more than a few Scottish seats in an election now. This also means we do not have a clear view as of today what outcome is most likely. The election results in 2015 and 2017 caught most by surprise.”