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28 Mar 2014
EUR/AUD falling onto the 1.48 handle
FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/AUD has been a progressive decent on the week from above the 1.51 handle and is approaching into the end of the week on a bearish note.
EUR/AUD was aided by this morning’s European session with the Eurozone credit data for February which is not likely to make anyone on the ECB feel good about any signs of progress. Later up o the day’s activities in respect of the calendar, we will see Eurozone confidence surveys for March. These are are expected to see a rising trend ahead of the ECB next week. ANZ research team in respect of the ECB said “Any ECB easing on 3 April will only have a transitory impact on the EUR”.
AUD riding upbeat economy, but…
Strategists at TD Securities explained that they have a dour set of expectations for the monthly high frequency data set next week. While they are upbeat overall for the Australian economy, they see a good case for a pull-back in building approvals (Thu TD –3%) and retail sales (Thu TD –1%) after outsized jumps in January. “Our big call is expecting a slip into trade deficit for February (-$A300m) when early consensus expects another solid surplus. Our premise is that the unexpected slump in Chinese imports from Australia translates into a slide in Australia’s exports to China”.
EUR/AUD bearish bias
EUR/AUD indicators are heavily bearish but there are those that offer an oversold outlook with RSI (14) reading 23 on the 15m and sum 30 on the daily (14). 1w EMA’s are supporting a neutral to bullish bias south of 1.5290.
EUR/AUD was aided by this morning’s European session with the Eurozone credit data for February which is not likely to make anyone on the ECB feel good about any signs of progress. Later up o the day’s activities in respect of the calendar, we will see Eurozone confidence surveys for March. These are are expected to see a rising trend ahead of the ECB next week. ANZ research team in respect of the ECB said “Any ECB easing on 3 April will only have a transitory impact on the EUR”.
AUD riding upbeat economy, but…
Strategists at TD Securities explained that they have a dour set of expectations for the monthly high frequency data set next week. While they are upbeat overall for the Australian economy, they see a good case for a pull-back in building approvals (Thu TD –3%) and retail sales (Thu TD –1%) after outsized jumps in January. “Our big call is expecting a slip into trade deficit for February (-$A300m) when early consensus expects another solid surplus. Our premise is that the unexpected slump in Chinese imports from Australia translates into a slide in Australia’s exports to China”.
EUR/AUD bearish bias
EUR/AUD indicators are heavily bearish but there are those that offer an oversold outlook with RSI (14) reading 23 on the 15m and sum 30 on the daily (14). 1w EMA’s are supporting a neutral to bullish bias south of 1.5290.