USD/JPY a sell here? Dollar is strong for 'bad' reasons - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura explained that the dollar has seen a bounce-back this week as US 10yr yields climb above 3%. We think the dollar rally is actually for “bad” reasons – it seems unlikely that yields are moving higher through growth repricing (the data have been good for some time now).

Key Quotes:

"Instead, we think rising commodity prices driven by geopolitical tensions are the more likely driver of higher yields.

The dollar rally has coincided with equity and credit market weakness. We don't think there has been a turn in the medium-term dollar downtrend.

In such an environment, we think the best way of holding onto a core short dollar position would be to sell it against the yen – a safe-haven currency."