EUR/USD caps best week in months despite pullback
- EUR/USD ends week far from highs, still up 200 pips.
- Next week events: FOMC, NFP and EZ GDP.
The EUR/USD pair was about to end the week hovering around 1.2430, with a weekly gain of 200 pips. A weak US dollar was the main driver of the pair. Volatility rose and could remain elevated taking into account what the economic calendar shows for next week.
On Friday, the euro recovered part of the losses that followed US President Trump comments about a “strong dollar”. It rebounded from 1.2360 and lost momentum below 1.2500. During the last hours of the US session, it was moving between 1.2450 and 1.2400. US economic data had little impact on markets on Friday. The Q4 GDP report showed that the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.6% below the 3.0% of market consensus.
Rally goes on: sixth weekly gain
EUR/USD peaked on Thursday at 1.2536, the highest level since December 2014. It reached it during Mario Draghi’s press conference following the ECB decision to keep monetary policy and the statement unchanged. “ECB President Mario Draghi expressed confidence that inflation would move up, pointing to a strong recovery and early signs of rising wage increases. The words were perceived as hawkish by the markets and sent bond yields and the EUR higher. While we do not expect euro core inflation to pick up significantly this year, the market may be becoming increasingly nervous that it could happen earlier than expected due to the strong economic data”, said analysts from Danske Bank.
The US dollar recovered some ground and pushed EUR/USD to trade momentarily below 1.2400 following Trump’s comments about a “strong US dollar”. Next week two key events are likely to dominate the week in the US: the FOMC meeting (Wednesday) and the jobs report (Friday). In the Eurozone, GDP data will be released (Tuesday).
Despite moving away from the highs, EUR/USD posted a gain of 200 pips over the week. It was headed toward the sixth weekly rise in-a-row and the highest close since December 2014.
The uptrend remains intact supported mostly by the decline of the US dollar. The US Dollar Index dropped to 3-year lows at 89.00. Some technical readings in the EUR/USD chart warn about extreme overbought readings that could rise the odds of a consolidation for next week. On the other side, the negative tone around the greenback appears to be intact.