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30 Nov 2015
AUD: Inflation gauge moves up - TDS
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, notes that TD Securities Inflation Gauge for Nov rose +0.1 to be +1.8%/yr and trimmed mean was flat and 1.6%.
Key Quotes
“No inflation “snapback” scares here. The Oct private sector credit mix was constructive with low rates boosting owner-occupied housing at +0.7%/mth, macro tools limiting investor credit to just +0.4%/mth, a 14 month low while business credit jumped +1.0% in Oct, after +1.1%/mth in Sep. Taking the last three monthly growth figures and annualizing, business credit is now outpacing housing.”
“Finally, Q3 profits and inventories (and wages) surprised to the upside, limiting the downside after last week’s weak capex report (plant and equipment -8.2%). Tomorrow’s government spending and net exports (f/c +1.3%pts) are required before we offer any adjustments to our Q3 GDP forecast of +0.7%/qtr (mkt +0.7%, range +0.3% to +0.9%, prior +0.2% - expect upgrade).”
Key Quotes
“No inflation “snapback” scares here. The Oct private sector credit mix was constructive with low rates boosting owner-occupied housing at +0.7%/mth, macro tools limiting investor credit to just +0.4%/mth, a 14 month low while business credit jumped +1.0% in Oct, after +1.1%/mth in Sep. Taking the last three monthly growth figures and annualizing, business credit is now outpacing housing.”
“Finally, Q3 profits and inventories (and wages) surprised to the upside, limiting the downside after last week’s weak capex report (plant and equipment -8.2%). Tomorrow’s government spending and net exports (f/c +1.3%pts) are required before we offer any adjustments to our Q3 GDP forecast of +0.7%/qtr (mkt +0.7%, range +0.3% to +0.9%, prior +0.2% - expect upgrade).”