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25 Feb 2013

Forex Flash: Reflationary policy to push GDP higher in the Eurozone – Merrill Lynch

Merrill Lynch analysts expect reflationary policy to succeed in pushing GDP growth into positive territory, albeit at low levels, with a return to positive GDP growth QoQ by 3Q13. “But for reflation to translate to sustained growth, closer to trend levels, structural policies (bank restructuring, regulatory reforms and completion of the union) need to be implemented: „ Reflationary policy in Europe was more modest than in the US but has proved successful in arresting the economic decline”, they wrote, expecting positive growth in 2013 H2 and at 1% in 2014, as well as positive inflation in the Euro area albeit below the ECB’s 2% target.

“Looking beyond the short term “reflation trade”, trend growth for the five main European countries is unlikely to recover to pre-crisis levels, but would lie between 1 to 2%, highest in the UK (2.1% down from 3.1% pre-crisis), followed by Spain (1.8% down from 3.7% pre-crisis) and France (1.4% down from 2.2 % pre-crisis), and lowest for Italy (0.7% down from 1.5%) and Germany (1.1% down from 1.6%) arising from ageing to a large extent”, they added.
Feb 25, 2013

Forex: EUR/GBP reaches 16-month high

The euro took advantage of the broad weakness seen in pound on the back of the UK downgrade by Moody's with EUR/GBP climbing toward its strongest level in 16 months.
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Feb 25, 2013

Forex: USD/CAD trading at session highs near resistance

The USD/CAD has rocketed higher during American trading Monday, establishing session highs in the 1.0269 region in these moments. Capped by its first resistance at 1.0271, the pair is holding steady, notching an advance of +0.40% above its opening.
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