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18 Jul 2013
Flash: AUD depreciation more akin to sustained 1997, 2000 moves - NAB
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Consensus is now for a weaker Australian Dollar, notes Emma Lawson, FX Strategist at NAB, who underlines the IMM spec positioning being at extremes as proof of it.
NAB now sees AUD/USD at 0.88 at the end of 2013, and 0.85 in June 2014, with Lawson noting that "We view the present AUD depreciation episode as more akin to sustained 1997 and 2000 moves, as opposed to the short-lived 2002-20012 drops. We also see the financial crisis, 2008 decline as an anomaly."
As Lawson adds: "Short-term tactical issues, such as positioning, and market volatility may provide temporary moves higher in the AU, however, we view these as periods to enter short AUD positions at a more attractive rate, rather than presaging a more sustained AUD recovery. Against the USD, there appears to be some resistance at 0.9350, which is our stop. We are presently targeting 0.88 from an entry level of 0.9210."
NAB now sees AUD/USD at 0.88 at the end of 2013, and 0.85 in June 2014, with Lawson noting that "We view the present AUD depreciation episode as more akin to sustained 1997 and 2000 moves, as opposed to the short-lived 2002-20012 drops. We also see the financial crisis, 2008 decline as an anomaly."
As Lawson adds: "Short-term tactical issues, such as positioning, and market volatility may provide temporary moves higher in the AU, however, we view these as periods to enter short AUD positions at a more attractive rate, rather than presaging a more sustained AUD recovery. Against the USD, there appears to be some resistance at 0.9350, which is our stop. We are presently targeting 0.88 from an entry level of 0.9210."