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4 Feb 2025

GBP: The big winner in the tariff saga – ING

The pound emerged as a safe haven among pro-cyclical currencies yesterday, and seems to be retaining some solid footing after an American trade war was averted, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

EUR/GBP may not return to the 0.8450 soon

“The reason is simple: the UK does not have much to lose from US tariffs. UK exports to the US are less than 2% of GDP and those to China less than 1%. Incidentally, Trump seems in no rush to hit the UK with tariffs, also considering its goods trade balance with the US is arguably negligible. Trump also seemed to be on rather amicable terms with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer after a recent call.”

“Another factor contributing to sterling strength was Starmer’s trip to Brussels. That was officially aimed at strengthening an EU-UK defence path, but on which markets may be double reading an intent by Starmer to gradually reconnect with the EU politically. That is inarguably positive for sterling, which remains highly sensitive to any development that can improve a worsening growth outlook.”

“There are however some downside risks for the pound this week, as we expect headlines today confirming the fiscal headroom for the UK Chancellor has evaporated due to higher borrowing costs, and on Thursday the Bank of England may deliver a dovish rate cut. Still, EUR/GBP may not return to the 0.8450 January peak soon.”

Feb 4, 2025

NZD/USD: To trade in a range between 0.5570 and 0.5670 – UOB Group

Outlook is unclear; New Zealand (NZD) could trade in a range between 0.5570 and 0.5670. In the longer run, current price movements are likely part of a 0.5510/0.5705 range trading phase, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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Feb 4, 2025

Gold hits record high on Trump tariffs – ING

Gold rose to a new all-time high after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, driving investors to safe havens, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.
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