Upside risks for NOK – ING

Norges Bank should hike by 25 bps today, and this may not even be their last move – economists at ING still see NOK gains ahead.

25 bps by Norges Bank

We expect Norges Bank to hike by 25 bps today, in line with previous guidance. 

Markets are pricing in a peak in Norwegian rates after today’s 25 bps hike, but we feel they are underestimating the chances of another hike in September. 

Anyway, today is an interim meeting with no new rate projections. We cannot exclude Norges Bank will hint at openness to more tightening, and we see upside risks for NOK anyway, given the rather flat market pricing.