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4 May 2023

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bearish RSI divergence prods Euro bulls below 1.1100 ahead of ECB

  • EUR/USD grinds higher within a three-week-old bullish trend channel.
  • Sustained break of weekly resistance line, 100-SMA joins bullish MACD signals to favor Euro buyers.
  • RSI prints lower high despite EUR/USD’s gradual increase, challenging further advances.
  • Sellers need validation from 200-SMA to retake control.

EUR/USD bulls keep the reins near the highest levels in 13 months by printing mild gains near 1.1070 as Euro traders await Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision.

In doing so, the Euro pair defends the Federal Reserve inspired gains with a three-week-old ascending trend channel. However, a divergence between the RSI (14) line and the EUR/USD price challenges the pair buyers ahead of the key event.

Also read: European Central Bank Preview: Lagarde set to lift the Euro in two out of three scenarios

It’s worth noting that the RSI (14) line is in the descending formation since April 14 even if the Euro pair grinds higher, which in turn suggest that the bulls are running out of steam.

The same joins the quote’s nearness to the aforementioned trend channel’s resistance line, close to 1.1110, to increase the odds of the EUR/USD pair’s pullback.

In that case, a convergence of the 100-SMA and one-week-old previous resistance line, near 1.0995, could lure the intraday sellers ahead of the stated channel’s bottom line, close to 1.0950 at the latest.

Even so, the EUR/USD bears need to remain cautious ahead of the 200-SMA break, currently around 1.0925.

On the contrary, an upside clearance of the 1.1110 hurdle comprising the channel’s top line could propel the Euro price towards the March 2022 high of near 1.1185.

EUR/USD: Four-hour chart

Trend: Pullback expected

 

May 4, 2023

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