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16 Mar 2023

AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Dives on risk-off mood, yet stays afloat above 88.00

  • AUD/JPY dipped below 88.00 and reached a YTD low at 87.35 on Wednesday.
  • The cross-currency pair bias remains downwards, albeit reclaiming the 88.00 figure.
  • AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Downward biased, though once 89.00 is reclaimed, a leg-up to 90.00 is on the cards.

The AUD/JPY tumbled sharply on Wednesday, more than 1.50%, spurred by a risk-off impulse. Fears around global bank contagion weighed on global bank stocks, particularly Credit Suisse (CS), which seeks support from Swiss authorities like FINMA and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). At the time of writing, the AUD/JPY exchanges hands at $88.19.

AUD/JPY Price action

After breaking a four-month-old upslope trendline, the AUD/JPY has fallen to new YTD lows reached on March 15 at 87.35. However, news from Switzerland sponsored a bounce off the lows, and the AUD/JPY pair closed above the 88.00 figure.

Oscillators remain bearish territory, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifted flat, meaning consolidation lies ahead. In the meantime, the Rate of Change (RoC) portrays selling pressure as waning.

The AUD/JPY path of least resistance is downwards. Backed by the daily EMAs resting above the exchange rate and oscillators in bearish territory. Therefore, the AUD/JPY's first support would be the 88.00 figure. Once broken, the pair might test the YTD lows at 87.35, which, once cleared, the AUD/JPY would dive towards the December 20 swing low at 87.01, ahead of the figure.

As an alternate scenario, the AUD/JPY first resistance would be 89.00. A surge above the figure and the AUD/JPY could rally towards 90.00, ahead of testing the 20-day EMA at 90.30.

AUD/JPY Daily chart

AUD/JPY Technical levels

 

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