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4 Jan 2023

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD climbs above $1,850 on improved mood, ahead of FOMC minutes

  • Gold prices are bolstered by an upbeat market sentiment keeping the US Dollar offered.
  • Investors cheered China’s planning to support the property market and the relaxation of its Covid zero-tolerance policy.
  • A busy US economic docket keeps traders wary of propelling the US Dollar.
  • Minnesota Fed Kashkari: The Fed must avoid cutting rates prematurely.

Gold price rallied to eight-month highs around $1,865.15, though slightly retraced some of its gains amidst an upbeat market sentiment, spurred by China’s support to its housing market, alongside its border reopening, as it relaxes Covid-19 zero-tolerance measures. Investors get ready for a busy economic calendar in the United States (US), while Federal Reserve’s (Fed) officials began to cross newswires. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD is trading at $1,856.01, above its opening price by 1%.

Upbeat market mood spurred by China’s news underpinned Gold

Wall Street is poised to open higher, as shown by equity futures rising, while the US Dollar (USD) weakens. Factors like Chinese authorities planning to deliver additional support to property developers, aimed to relax liquidity stress in some “too-big-to-fail” developers, sparked a rally in Asian stocks. Meanwhile, China’s reopening was cheered by investors, even though the country reported 5 Covid deaths on January 3, vs. three from the previous day.

US Dollar weakens as traders brace for US data

Aside from this, investors waiting for US economic data has bolstered Gold prices, as Tuesday’s US Dollar longs exited ahead of market-moving data. Following the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI release on Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) for December is expected to drop from 49.0 to 48.5. Also, the JOLTs report is estimated to hit 10 M, vs. 10.334M in the previous month, while the main spotlight would be the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) December meeting minutes.

Minnesota Fed Kashkari sees rates around 5.4%

In the meantime, Minnesota’s Fed President Neil Kashkari (voter in 2023) said that it would be appropriate to continue to hike rates “at least at the next few meetings” until inflation has peaked and foresees the Federal Funds rate (FFR) at 5.4%. He added that the Fed must avoid cutting the policy rate prematurely and would consider cutting only when it’s convinced inflation is on its way back down to 2%.

Gold Daily Chart

Gold Key Technical Levels

 

Jan 4, 2023

USD Index bounces off lows and regains 104.00 ahead of FOMC

Following an earlier drop to daily lows near 103.80, the USD Index (DXY) manages to pick up some pace and retake the 104.00 neighbourhood on Wednesday
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Jan 4, 2023

US: ISM Manufacturing PMI declines to 48.4 in December vs. 48.5 expected

Business activity in the US manufacturing sector contracted for the second straight month in December with ISM's Manufacturing PMI declining to 48.4 f
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